The conventional wisdom is that Florida Gators coach Billy Napier’s job is in jeopardy.
He’s a fixture of hot seat lists thanks to an 11-14 record, the nation’s hardest schedule and win total odds around 4½. If Napier’s tenure begins with a third consecutive losing season, it’s hard to envision him getting a fourth.
But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? How can Napier spring a couple upsets, beat a rival or two and show enough progress to have fans excited about the program’s direction a year from now?
With more experience, a veteran quarterback, a few luckier bounces, a successful offseason overhaul and (finally) stability.
This analysis isn’t intended as a prediction either way. Rather, it’s a good-faith attempt to challenge the prevailing predictions by reverse-engineering a turnaround. If Napier rebounds in Year 3, these five reasons will be key.
Gators are veterans
Immediately after losing to Florida State, Napier tried to find optimism through the growing pains of inexperience.
“Look at the teams across the country that are having success,” Napier said then. “They have veteran football teams, right?”
Right. The teams that had the most returning production last year (Kansas and Missouri) were two of the most improved in the nation. Nos. 3 and 4 (FSU and Michigan) went 28-1.
Florida was 115th, according to ESPN. The Gators led the country with seven true freshmen who played in every game. Their 37 starts by true/redshirt freshmen ranked fifth among power programs.
All that 2023 experience means 2024 Florida is a veteran team. The Gators are up to 24th in returning production, with 204 more career starts and 10,000-plus more career snaps than a year ago. Considering Napier’s emphasis on development, those stats are encouraging.
Players can react faster, because they know the schemes better. Coaches can highlight talent, because they have a deeper knowledge of the personnel. Staffers know who to talk to if there’s an issue, because they’ve had time to forge relationships with players and their inner circles.
“There’s trust,” Napier said.
Trust that could finally pay off this fall.
Graham Mertz is back
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Explore all your optionsSigning five-star quarterback DJ Lagway was massive for the Gators’ future, but the bigger immediate move was retaining Graham Mertz.
“That’s the story of the offseason,” Napier said.
And the story of this season, for a few reasons.
Mertz’s 43 career starts make him one of the most experienced passers in the nation. He shattered UF’s single-season completion percentage record (72.9%) and posted a 20:3 touchdown-interception ratio.
And history suggests the Wisconsin transfer will be even better in his second year. Six of last year’s seven leading passers were in Year 2 at School 2, including the top three Heisman Trophy vote-getters (LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix). Quinn Ewers was a few spots lower but led Texas to its first playoff appearance.
Joe Burrow’s passing yards in Year 1 at LSU (2,894) were almost identical to Mertz (2,903 last year). Burrow nearly doubled that output the next year on his run to the Heisman and national title.
Even if Mertz doesn’t reach those heights, he and the Gators should benefit from his familiarity. On the field, he knows the system better and can take more calculated risks to boost one of the SEC’s least explosive passing attacks. Off the field, he’s no longer the new guy who had to earn the locker room’s respect before becoming a leader.
“Now I can get out there, and if I see something the wrong way, I can fix it,” Mertz said.
Florida’s luck should improve
Though Florida’s 5-7 record was unacceptable, maybe the Gators weren’t far from respectability.
“Even with that young roster, they got tremendous experience, and they were really competitive last year,” athletic director Scott Stricklin said.
Florida trailed LSU by a field goal with 10 minutes left, was a fourth-and-17 stop away from winning at Missouri and led the Seminoles midway through the fourth quarter. The Gators lost them all and deserved to do so. No moral victories here. But they were competitive against three teams that finished in the top 12. It’s possible their luck turns. Probable, even, if you focus on turnovers.
Only three teams in the nation recovered a lower percentage of opponents’ fumbles (26.7%). The national average was one interception for every 4.5 pass breakups. Florida was 12.3 — a ratio that ranked last nationally and was more than twice as bad as any SEC team. And it was even worse in the season-ending, five game losing streak (18 breakups, one interception).
Coaching and effort play a role in both statistics, but so do literal bad bounces. It’s fair to expect UF’s luck to improve. Maybe the final scores do, too.
Napier addressed every weakness
The Gators were neither ignorant nor arrogant this offseason.
“Some of the areas where we didn’t improve Year 1 to Year 2,” Napier said, “I think we’ve made the necessary adjustments.”
Such as:
Special teams: The Gators were statistically solid but marred by inexplicable gaffes (two No. 3s at Utah, disarray against Arkansas, too many instances with too few players on the field).
Napier hired Joe Houston as a senior analyst and has praised his level of detail and situational expertise — two issues where the Gators, clearly, struggled. A recent NCAA rule change allows analysts like Houston to do on-field coaching (an added bonus for Napier’s massive staff).
Offensive line: A unit with two position coaches — a rarity and alleged advantage — was unimpressive. The Gators ranked in the bottom 25 in sacks and tackles for loss allowed per game. The line bogged down a talented backfield and run game (70th nationally at 4.3 yards per rush).
Florida replaced one line coach and added a pair of tackles with starting experience (San Diego State’s Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and Arkansas’ Devon Manuel). Their presence also upgrades the interior by allowing Damieon George to move from tackle to guard (where he prefers to play).
Defense: The Gators finished second-to-last nationally in passes of 40-plus yards allowed (20), recorded their fewest tackles for loss (58) in two decades and allowed their most yards per rush (4.84) since at least 1946. The across-the-board failure resulted in changes at every level.
The Gators hired a new assistant on the line (Gerald Chatman), for linebackers (Ron Roberts) and in the secondary (Will Harris). All three have coordinator experience. Roberts is key; he’s the architect of the defensive scheme Napier runs and has been coaching longer than coordinator Austin Armstrong has been alive. Roberts’ practical wisdom and experience should balance Armstrong’s intelligence and exuberance.
Florida’s fifth-ranked portal class also hit every level. It features one of this cycle’s top 10 transfers at defensive line (Joey Slackman), linebacker (Grayson Howard) and cornerback (Cormani McClain and Tampa Catholic alumnus Jameer Grimsley), plus a pair of safeties with 40 combined starts.
Strength, conditioning, nutrition: It’s hard to isolate their impact on the scoreboard, but the Gators’ second-half point differential tied Auburn for third-worst in the SEC. Florida became a punchline when Princely Umanmielen (now at Mississippi) told Inside the Gators that UF’s offseason workouts made them look like “a track team.”
Napier replaced his directors of nutrition and strength and conditioning. The strength program has a new, data-driven approach thanks to Tyler Miles’ engineering background. If something clicks with 80% of the team, Miles and his staff can try to pinpoint (and address) issues with the other 20%.
“We’re going to know when to put our foot on the gas and our foot on the brakes, and it will all be based on numbers,” Miles said.
Napier, for what it’s worth, said this was the best offseason of his tenure, and Stricklin said the Gators are bigger, stronger and faster. That doesn’t guarantee a turnaround, but it’s a good place to start.
Napier’s systems are established
Napier never promised a quick turnaround, and that was before he realized how much the transfer portal and name, image and likeness complicated the rebuilding process in ways that didn’t exist when Louisiana hired him in December 2017.
“You’re giving away two years of your life, to some degree,” Napier said last May.
It doesn’t matter whether you view that line as an explanation or an excuse.
His two years are up.
Napier has had enough time to figure out a transfer approach (incoming and outgoing). Same with replacing a name, image and likeness program that was a laughingstock.
He has had enough time to turn over a mediocre roster (only 14 Dan Mullen signees remain). He has had enough time to modernize the support staff and improve the player experience with more parking and better food. He has had enough time to implement every philosophy, check and balance his organizational chart requires. He has even had enough time to learn that he needed more time, adding a chief of staff and promoting Russ Callaway to co-offensive coordinator to take some responsibilities off his personal plate.
“We’re executing. We’re not creating, if that makes sense,” Napier said this May. “We’re not building a system. We’re not overhauling some part of what we do.”
The overhauls are finally over. Now Napier and his staff can put all their energy into doing the part of the job that matters most.
Winning games. Perhaps enough to disprove the conventional wisdom.
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